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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.