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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."